Availability Bias
The tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events that come readily to mind — typically because they are recent, vivid, or emotionally charged.
Examples
- Overestimating the risk of plane crashes after seeing news coverage of one
- Thinking shark attacks are common because they’re memorable
- Judging a coworker’s performance based on recent incidents rather than their full track record
Why It Happens
The brain uses ease of recall as a shortcut for frequency or probability. Vivid, recent, or emotional memories are more accessible.
How to Counteract
- Rely on data and base rates, not anecdotes
- Ask “How representative is this example?”
- Consider what you might not be remembering