Doubt-Avoidance Tendency
The brain is programmed to remove the discomfort of doubt by reaching a decision quickly — a rush to certainty that is intensified by puzzlement and stress. One of Charlie Munger’s 25 causes of human misjudgment.
Examples
- A juror settling on a verdict early to escape the unpleasantness of uncertainty
- Forcing a snap diagnosis under time pressure rather than holding the question open
- Picking the first plausible explanation for a bug instead of suspending judgment
Why It Happens
Unresolved doubt is cognitively and emotionally aversive. Evolution favored fast resolution because a quick decision often beat prolonged hesitation in the face of threat.
How to Counteract
- Deliberately keep the question open: “I don’t have to decide this yet”
- Remove stress and time pressure before committing to a conclusion
- Use Analysis of Competing Hypotheses — hold multiple hypotheses alive rather than collapsing to one (see Cognitive Traps in Intelligence Analysis)