Survivorship Bias
The logical error of concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not, typically because of their lack of visibility.
Examples
- Studying successful entrepreneurs while ignoring the vast majority who failed
- Looking at old buildings and concluding they were built better, ignoring all the poorly built ones that collapsed
- “They don’t make music like they used to” — forgetting all the forgotten mediocre songs from the past
Why It Happens
Failures are often invisible or unrecorded. Success leaves a trail; failure often disappears.
How to Counteract
- Ask “What don’t I see?”
- Consider the denominator, not just the numerator
- Seek out data on failures, not just successes