Wishful Thinking
The formation of beliefs and making decisions based on what might be pleasing to imagine, rather than on evidence, rationality, or reality. It’s the tendency to believe what we want to believe.
Examples
- Believing a loved one’s serious illness will magically get better
- Assuming a risky investment will pay off because you need the money
- Thinking you’ll get a promotion despite poor performance reviews
Why It Happens
Our desires influence our beliefs. When we want something to be true, we’re more likely to believe it is true, which provides temporary comfort but can lead to poor decisions.
How to Counteract
- Actively seek objective evidence
- Consider the base rates and probabilities
- Ask “What would I advise a friend in this situation?”
- Separate your hopes from your assessment of reality