Overconfidence
The tendency to be more confident than correct—to overestimate our abilities, knowledge, or the accuracy of our predictions. It’s a systematic bias where confidence exceeds actual performance.
Examples
- Believing you can complete a project in half the estimated time
- Thinking you’re a better-than-average driver despite average skills
- Making bold predictions without considering base rates
Why It Happens
Overconfidence feels good and can be socially rewarded. It also stems from the difficulty of assessing our own competence and the tendency to remember successes while forgetting failures.
How to Counteract
- Keep a decision journal to track predictions vs. outcomes
- Seek feedback and calibration training
- Consider base rates and reference classes
- Practice intellectual humility