Superforecasting
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a 2015 nonfiction book by psychologist Philip E. Tetlock and journalist Dan Gardner. It examines why some people are exceptionally good at predicting future events and what their methods reveal about improving judgment and decision-making.
Key facts
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Authors: Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner
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Publication year: 2015
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Publisher: Crown (U.S.)
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Genre: Nonfiction, psychology, forecasting
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Based on: The Good Judgment Project
Origins and research basis
The book draws on Tetlock’s Good Judgment Project, part of a U.S. government–funded forecasting tournament. Over four years, thousands of volunteers predicted world events, allowing researchers to identify “superforecasters”—individuals whose predictions consistently outperformed intelligence analysts and statistical baselines.
The concept of superforecasting
Superforecasters are ordinary people who apply disciplined reasoning, probabilistic thinking, and continual self-correction. They break complex problems into smaller parts, remain open to new evidence, and update their beliefs incrementally. Their approach contrasts with overconfident experts who rely on intuition or rigid models.
Methods and cognitive style
Tetlock and Gardner outline habits that foster accurate forecasting: actively seeking disconfirming evidence, quantifying uncertainty with explicit probabilities, and learning from feedback. The authors advocate for a “growth mindset” in prediction, emphasizing curiosity, humility, and analytical rigor over ideology or status.
Influence and reception
The book influenced business strategists, policymakers, and intelligence communities seeking to improve decision quality. It popularized evidence-based forecasting as a practical skill and reinforced the idea that better judgment can be learned through deliberate practice. Critics praised its clarity and empirical grounding, calling it one of the decade’s most insightful works on human judgment.