Forecasts
Prediction is the ultimate test of critical thinking. It forces you to convert vague opinions into explicit probabilities — and then holds you accountable.
Good forecasters are distinguished not by intelligence, but by accurate uncertainty estimates. This is a core finding from Superforecasting.
Principles
- Use explicit probabilities — never “likely” or “probably.” Use numbers.
- Log your reasoning — what evidence, what assumptions, what model.
- Define update criteria in advance — what would change your mind, and by how much.
- Review regularly — track accuracy, calibrate confidence, learn from misses.
Forecast Categories
All Forecasts
- Humanoid robots: major commercial deployment by 2035 — Robotics, active
Browse by category above. Each forecast logs an explicit probability, its reasoning, advance update criteria, and a review date.
Brier Score Tracking
A Brier score measures the accuracy of probabilistic predictions:
- Perfect: 0
- Random guessing: 0.25
- Always wrong: 1
Track yours over time to see if your calibration is improving.