Claim Analysis

A personal rationality lab. Every time I encounter an interesting claim, I create a note analyzing the evidence, assumptions, counterevidence, and my current confidence.

The goal is to track how beliefs change over time — and get better at calibrating confidence.

Claims

Each claim note logs its confidence %, source, supporting and disconfirming evidence, and what would update the belief. In Obsidian these can also be tracked dynamically via the #claim tag.

3 items under this folder.